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TROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072016
800 PM PDT MON JUL 25 2016

The areal coverage of the deep convection has been gradually
shrinking and only a small area of strong thunderstorms remains to
the northeast of the center.  Recent SSMIS data reveals that the
low-level structure is becoming less organized, but the mid-level
circulation is still quite distinct.  The cyclone has a vigorous
circulation, and based on continuity as well as the latest
Dvorak estimates, the initial intensity is kept at 45 kt.

The shear does not appear to be a problem for Frank, but a stable
environment and cooler waters along its path will likely result in
weakening. This will likely occur beyond 24 hours when the entire
circulation reaches cooler waters. The NHC forecast follows the
guidance trend, primarily the SHIPS model, and calls for Frank to
degenerate into a remnant low in about 3 days.

Initial motion is 285/06. Global models forecast that the ridge to
the north of Frank will remain steady for the next few days. This
pattern will continue to steer the cyclone on a general west-
northwest track with a slight increase in forward speed until
dissipation. There is basically no spread in the guidance from 12
through 72 hours, increasing significantly the confidence in
the track forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/0300Z 20.8N 115.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  26/1200Z 21.1N 116.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  27/0000Z 21.6N 117.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  27/1200Z 22.3N 119.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  28/0000Z 23.0N 121.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  29/0000Z 24.0N 124.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  30/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

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