ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072016
800 PM PDT MON JUL 25 2016
The areal coverage of the deep convection has been gradually
shrinking and only a small area of strong thunderstorms remains to
the northeast of the center. Recent SSMIS data reveals that the
low-level structure is becoming less organized, but the mid-level
circulation is still quite distinct. The cyclone has a vigorous
circulation, and based on continuity as well as the latest
Dvorak estimates, the initial intensity is kept at 45 kt.
The shear does not appear to be a problem for Frank, but a stable
environment and cooler waters along its path will likely result in
weakening. This will likely occur beyond 24 hours when the entire
circulation reaches cooler waters. The NHC forecast follows the
guidance trend, primarily the SHIPS model, and calls for Frank to
degenerate into a remnant low in about 3 days.
Initial motion is 285/06. Global models forecast that the ridge to
the north of Frank will remain steady for the next few days. This
pattern will continue to steer the cyclone on a general west-
northwest track with a slight increase in forward speed until
dissipation. There is basically no spread in the guidance from 12
through 72 hours, increasing significantly the confidence in
the track forecast.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/0300Z 20.8N 115.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 21.1N 116.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 21.6N 117.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 22.3N 119.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 28/0000Z 23.0N 121.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 29/0000Z 24.0N 124.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Avila
NNNN