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TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062016
2100 UTC TUE JUL 19 2016

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 119.8W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 70NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT.......130NE 120SE  80SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 180SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 119.8W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 119.2W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 19.3N 121.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE  80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 19.7N 123.9W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.1N 126.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.1N 129.1W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 23.7N 134.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 27.5N 138.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 31.0N 141.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 119.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


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