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TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062016
0900 UTC MON JUL 18 2016

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 114.0W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 80NE  70SE  20SW  70NW.
34 KT.......130NE 130SE  80SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 180SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 114.0W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 113.6W

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 17.7N 115.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  20SW  70NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE  80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 18.3N 117.1W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  30SW  70NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE  80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 18.8N 119.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  40SW  70NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE  80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 19.2N 121.2W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.2N 125.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 22.0N 130.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 25.5N 135.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 114.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


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