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TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062016
2100 UTC SAT JUL 16 2016
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 109.7W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  90SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 109.7W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 109.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 16.2N 110.8W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 16.7N 112.2W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 17.2N 113.7W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  70SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 17.7N 115.3W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 18.4N 118.9W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 18.9N 123.2W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 20.3N 128.3W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 109.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
 
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