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TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062016
0900 UTC SAT JUL 16 2016

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 109.0W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  75SE  75SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 109.0W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 108.6W

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.0N 110.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  40SE   0SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 16.3N 111.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  60SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 16.7N 113.2W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  70SE  70SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 17.1N 114.7W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE  80SE  80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 18.0N 118.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE  90SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 18.5N 121.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 19.5N 126.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 109.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


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