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TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062016
200 PM PDT THU JUL 21 2016

Estelle is gradually weakening, with the convection warming west
of the center during the past few hours. The initial intensity is
set to 45 kt based on the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and
SAB.  Further weakening is expected as Estelle will be moving over
SSTs of less than 23C with an increase in shear, which should result
in Estelle losing organized deep convection and becoming post-
tropical in about 24 hours, or even a little sooner.  The remnant
low of Estelle is expected to dissipate after 72 hours.

The initial motion estimate is 290/14.  Estelle is being steered by
a mid-level ridge centered well to the east over the south-central
United States.  Estelle should continue moving around the periphery
of the ridge and turn a bit more poleward by 36 hours, and this
motion should continue through dissipation.  The new NHC track
forecast is again adjusted to the left of the previous one
following the latest trend in the guidance.  The official forecast
is close to the latest ECMWF and lies a bit north of the new
multi-model consensus aid TVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/2100Z 20.7N 129.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  22/0600Z 21.4N 131.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  22/1800Z 22.5N 134.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  23/0600Z 23.9N 136.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  23/1800Z 25.4N 139.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  24/1800Z 27.7N 143.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan

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