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TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062016
800 PM PDT WED JUL 20 2016

Satellite images show that Estelle continues to display a small
central dense overcast, and microwave data indicate the center is on
the southern side of the cloud mass.  Satellite classifications are
a bit lower than earlier, and the initial wind speed is set to 55
kt. A combination of cooler waters, dry and stable air, and
increasing shear should cause Estelle to gradually weaken over the
next few days.  Estelle is likely to become a post-tropical cyclone
in about 36 hours when it moves over SSTs around 22 deg C.  The NHC
intensity forecast is basically just an update of the previous
forecast, lying close to the model consensus.

Estelle is moving westward at about 12 kt, and is being steered by
a strong subtropical ridge.  The storm is expected to turn west-
northwestward tomorrow and then northwestward in a couple of days
when it reaches the western periphery of the ridge.  A continued
northwestward motion is expected until the post-tropical cyclone
dissipates in 4 to 5 days. There have been no significant changes to
the guidance, and the new NHC track forecast is very close to the
previous one.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/0300Z 19.5N 125.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  21/1200Z 19.9N 127.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  22/0000Z 20.8N 130.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  22/1200Z 22.0N 132.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  23/0000Z 23.5N 135.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  24/0000Z 26.9N 139.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  25/0000Z 30.5N 142.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

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