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TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062016
200 PM PDT WED JUL 20 2016

Estelle has changed little in organization throughout the day.
Satellite images show that the center of the storm is located
beneath a central dense overcast, with some fragmented bands around
that feature. The initial intensity is again held at 60 kt, which
could be a little generous based on the latest Dvorak
classifications.  Estelle is now over cool 25 deg C waters, and it
is headed for even cooler water during the next few days. These
unfavorable oceanic conditions combined with a more stable air mass
and an increase in westerly shear should cause a steady weakening
trend.  Estelle is likely to become a post-tropical cyclone in
about 48 hours, or perhaps sooner, when it moves over SSTs around 22
deg C.  The NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from this morning,
and lies close to the intensity model consensus.

Estelle is moving westward at about 11 kt, and is being steered by
a strong subtropical ridge located over the central United States.
The storm is expected to turn west-northwestward tonight and then
northwestward in a couple of days when it reaches the western
periphery of the ridge.  A continued northwestward motion is
expected until the cyclone dissipates in 4 to 5 days.  The new NHC
track forecast is not too different from the previous one and lies
near the multi-model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/2100Z 19.4N 124.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  21/0600Z 19.9N 126.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  21/1800Z 20.7N 129.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  22/0600Z 21.7N 131.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  22/1800Z 23.0N 134.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  23/1800Z 26.6N 138.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  24/1800Z 30.2N 142.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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