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TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062016
800 PM PDT MON JUL 18 2016

The satellite presentation of Estelle has degraded a bit in the
past few hours with some warming cloud-top temperatures noted near
the center.  Convective towers have been seemingly just rotating
around the center without any appreciable increase in inner-core
structure.  Satellite classifications have dropped a bit, so the
initial wind speed will be lowered to 55 kt for this advisory.

It is a little puzzling why Estelle has not intensified but it is
likely related to the cyclone's large size and radius of maximum
wind, along with any lingering dry mid-level air.  With Estelle
remaining over warm water and experiencing light shear for the next
day or so, it makes sense to think the earlier negative conditions
would eventually be overcome.  There is a split tonight in the
guidance, however, with the statistical-dynamical aids
(SHIPS/LGEM) basically showing no intensification, while the
regional dynamical models (HWRF/GFDL) are forecasting Estelle to
become a hurricane.  Given what has occurred so far, it is prudent
to drop the intensity forecast from the previous one, but not yet
give up on Estelle becoming a hurricane.  A more consistent
weakening should begin in a couple of days over cool waters, with
remnant low status likely by day 4.

Microwave and satellite data indicate that Estelle continues to
move west-northwestward.  A large ridge over the eastern Pacific has
been providing a steady steering current for the cyclone.  Estelle
should continue moving westward to west-northwestward for the next
several days, then turn northwestward late in the forecast period
due to a weakness in the ridge. The track guidance continues to be
tightly clustered, and the NHC forecast remains very close to the
model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/0300Z 18.3N 116.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  19/1200Z 18.7N 117.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  20/0000Z 19.1N 120.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  20/1200Z 19.4N 122.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  21/0000Z 19.9N 124.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  22/0000Z 21.6N 130.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  23/0000Z 24.0N 135.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  24/0000Z 27.5N 139.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Blake

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