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TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062016
300 PM MDT SAT JUL 16 2016

Estelle's satellite presentation has changed very little since this
morning, with a large convective band still wrapping around the
western and southwestern portion of the circulation.  Satellite
data show that there is some northerly shear affecting Estelle,
causing a north-south tilt between the low- and mid-level
centers and a lack of convection over the northern part of the
storm.  Dvorak intensity estimates are unchanged since this morning
and the initial intensity remains 45 kt, which is in agreement with
a recent CIMSS AMSU intensity estimate.

The northerly shear is forecast to relax during the next day or so,
which should allow for strengthening while the tropical cyclone
remains over warm water during the next few days.  Estelle is
expected to become a hurricane in about 24 hours, and reach peak
intensity in 2 to 3 days.  The NHC intensity forecast is again a
little above the SHIPS/LGEM guidance, but in close agreement with
the Florida State Super Ensemble (FSSE).

The low-level center has been difficult to pinpoint today as
several low cloud swirls have been rotating around a mean center.
Based on the recent fixes of the mean center, the initial motion
estimate is 290/7 kt.  The tropical cyclone should continue on a
west-northwestward heading during the next few days to the south of
a subtropical ridge that extends westward from northern Mexico.  The
GFS continues to show less ridging than the ECMWF and has a track
that is along the northern edge of the guidance envelope. Meanwhile,
the ECMWF depicts a stronger ridge and a track more westward.
The NHC track lies between these solutions and is again close
to the FSSE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/2100Z 15.8N 109.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  17/0600Z 16.2N 110.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  17/1800Z 16.7N 112.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  18/0600Z 17.2N 113.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  18/1800Z 17.7N 115.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  19/1800Z 18.4N 118.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  20/1800Z 18.9N 123.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  21/1800Z 20.3N 128.3W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

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