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HURRICANE DARBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052016
0900 UTC THU JUL 14 2016

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 115.5W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  15SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  60SE  60SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 150SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 115.5W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 115.0W

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 16.0N 117.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  70SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 16.4N 119.9W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 16.8N 122.2W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  25SE  25SW  35NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 17.1N 124.2W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 17.5N 128.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...110NE  80SE  80SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 18.0N 131.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 18.5N 136.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 115.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


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