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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052016
300 AM MDT TUE JUL 12 2016

Satellite images indicate little overall change to the depression
during the past several hours.  Convection has been flaring up and
down without any apparent increase in organization.  A pair of
ASCAT passes showed maximum winds of 25 to 30 kt, so the initial
wind speed will stay 30 kt.

The initial motion has turned west-northwestward, and recently the
depression may even be moving due westward.  A westward or west-
southwestward course is expected for the next 2-3 days due to a
building ridge over the eastern Pacific.  Thereafter the system
should resume a track toward the west or west-northwest, with some
differences noted in the strength of the ridge at long range.
Overall, the model consensus has generally shifted southward by
about 30 n mi at most time intervals, and the official forecast will
follow that trend.

The intensity forecast is tricky since it is becoming more related
to the track forecast. While the overall environment looks conducive
for strengthening for a few days, the southward shift in the
cyclone's predicted path increases the chances that the system
encounters the cool wake of Blas and Celia. For now it is expected
to stay just to the north, so only a slight reduction is made to the
previous official forecast. The latest forecast is similar to the
intensity consensus for the first couple days, and remains above
that at longer range, mostly out of respect for a rather low-shear
environment forecast by the global models by late week.  It is
worth noting, and probably should be no surprise, that the intensity
guidance has a rather wide range for this forecast, with the
GFS-based COAMPS-TC model showing no significant strengthening and
the HWRF model making the cyclone a hurricane in 36 hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/0900Z 15.8N 107.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  12/1800Z 15.9N 108.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  13/0600Z 15.7N 110.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  13/1800Z 15.5N 113.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  14/0600Z 15.5N 115.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  15/0600Z 15.9N 119.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  16/0600Z 16.6N 123.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  17/0600Z 17.5N 127.0W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

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