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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052016
900 PM MDT MON JUL 11 2016

Convective banding associated with Five-E has increased in
organization this evening.  Accordingly, the SAB and TAFB Dvorak
current intensity numbers have increased to a 2.0 from both
agencies, corresponding to an intensity of 30 kt.  Earlier
scatterometer data suggested higher winds than given by Dvorak
estimates, however, so the system may already be a tropical storm.

The environment in which Five-E is moving over and through - quite
warm SSTs, a very moist atmosphere, and moderate to low tropospheric
vertical shear - is likely to promote steady intensification during
the next three days.  Around days 4 and 5, however, the cyclone
should be encountering the cool wake produced by Hurricanes Blas and
Celia.  This sub-26 deg C water and more stable environment may
cause the system to gradually weaken at that time. The intensity
forecast is closest to an HWRF dynamical/SHIPS statistical model
blend through 72 h, and to SHIPS alone at days 4 and 5, and is very
similar to that from the previous advisory.

The tropical cyclone is moving at 320/8 kt, though the current
position and motion are somewhat uncertain because of the lack of
useful microwave imagery passes this evening.  The system should
bend to a due west heading by tomorrow, as the deep-layer ridge to
its north builds in and strengthens.  The model guidance is tightly
clustered through all five days and the NHC track prediction is
nearly the same as that from the previous advisory.  The tropical
cyclone will remain out to sea with no threat to land for the next
several days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/0300Z 15.7N 106.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  12/1200Z 16.1N 108.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  13/0000Z 16.2N 110.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  13/1200Z 16.1N 112.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  14/0000Z 16.0N 114.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  15/0000Z 16.0N 119.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  16/0000Z 16.8N 123.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  17/0000Z 18.0N 127.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Landsea

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