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HURRICANE CELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042016
0300 UTC TUE JUL 12 2016
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 127.0W AT 12/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  972 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  20SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE  90SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..220NE 200SE 200SW 220NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 127.0W AT 12/0300Z
AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 126.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 16.2N 128.3W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  90SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 17.4N 130.1W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  90SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 18.6N 132.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  90SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 19.8N 134.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  90SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 21.4N 138.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  70SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 22.0N 143.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 22.5N 148.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 127.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
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