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TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042016
200 PM PDT WED JUL 13 2016

Deep convection associated with Celia has practically vanished, and
consequently the Dvorak subjective and objective T-numbers have
continued to decrease. However, the cyclone still has a vigorous
circulation, and the best estimate of the initial intensity is 45
kt.

The circulation of Celia is moving over waters of about 24 degree
Celsius and cooling, while the wind shear is forecast to gradually
increase. These conditions will result in additional weakening, and
Celia is expected to degenerate into a tropical depression in about
a day, and into a remnant low soon thereafter. The NHC forecast
is following SHIPS guidance.

The cyclone appears to be moving toward the west-northwest or 300
degrees at 11 kt around the periphery of the subtropical ridge.
Given that Celia is already weakening and becoming a shallow
system, it will be steered by the low-level flow on a general
west to west-northwest track for the next several days until
dissipation.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/2100Z 19.5N 133.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  14/0600Z 20.3N 135.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  14/1800Z 21.2N 137.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  15/0600Z 21.7N 139.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  15/1800Z 22.0N 142.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  16/1800Z 22.5N 147.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  17/1800Z 23.5N 151.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  18/1800Z 24.0N 156.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila

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