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HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042016
800 PM PDT MON JUL 11 2016

Celia continues to lack a definitive Central Dense Overcast and the
central features look rather ragged in conventional geostationary
imagery.  A 37 GHz SSM/I image from a few hours ago revealed that
the eye was open over the northeast quadrant.  The current intensity
estimate is kept at 85 kt, which is a blend of subjective Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and SAB and UW-CIMSS ADT estimates.  Since
Celia should be moving over waters that will be gradually cooling
and into a more stable air mass, a weakening trend will commence
soon.  The official intensity forecast is very close to the latest
model consensus, IVCN.

The cyclone has turned toward the west-northwest and the motion is
now about 285/9 kt.  Celia is near the western periphery of a
mid-tropospheric subtropical ridge, and a west-northwestward to
northwestward motion is likely for the next couple of days.  A
mid-level cyclone currently to the northeast of the Hawaiian
Islands is predicted to open up into a trough and lift northward,
allowing a ridge to build back in to the north of the tropical
cyclone.  This evolution of the steering pattern should cause Celia
to turn more toward the west in the latter part of the forecast
period.  The track models have mostly shifted northward from
their previous predictions, so the official forecast has been nudged
a little to the north of the previous one.  This is south of the
latest dynamical model consensus, however.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/0300Z 15.5N 127.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  12/1200Z 16.2N 128.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  13/0000Z 17.4N 130.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  13/1200Z 18.6N 132.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  14/0000Z 19.8N 134.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  15/0000Z 21.4N 138.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  16/0000Z 22.0N 143.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  17/0000Z 22.5N 148.0W   30 KT  35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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