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HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042016
800 AM PDT MON JUL 11 2016

After developing what had been a decent looking eye with a diameter
of about 20 nmi, dry air has once again penetrated into the
inner-core region and has eroded most of the eyewall convection.
Satellite current intensity estimates range from T4.5/77 kt from
TAFB and SAB to as high as T5.4/100 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT. Given the
ragged-appearing inner-core region in the last few images, the
intensity is only raised to 80 kt for this advisory, which is
consistent with a 1200 UTC UW-CIMSS SATCON consensus of 82 kt.

The initial motion estimate is 275/11 kt. A westward motion is
expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the
west-northwest late tonight as Celia begins to move into a
developing weakness in the subtropical ridge.  This weakness will be
created by a narrow mid-level trough along 130W longitude that is
digging southward as noted in water vapor imagery. The shortwave
trough is forecast to weaken by 72 h and lift out to the north or
northeast, which will allow the ridge to rebuild and force Celia
back on a more westward track on days 3-5. Similar to the previous
advisory, the NHC track model guidance remains in excellent
agreement on this scenario and is tightly packed around the previous
forecast track. As a result, the new forecast track is essentially
just an extension of the previous advisory track, and lies just
south of the TVCN consensus model.

Celia likely only has another 12 hours or so to strengthen while the
hurricane remains over SSTs above 26.5 deg C. The overall mid-level
environment is fairly moist and the vertical shear is expected to
remain light, which should favor some additional intensification. By
36 hours, however, Celia will be moving over sub-26C SSTs, which
should induce slow but steady weakening through the remainder of the
forecast period. However, since the vertical wind shear is expected
to remain low, Celia is forecast to still be a tropical cyclone when
it crosses 140W longitude and moves into the Central Pacific basin
in about 96 hours. The new intensity forecast is similar to the
previous advisory, and lies above all of the intensity guidance
through 36 h, and then lies near or below the guidance after that
during the weakening phase.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/1500Z 15.1N 125.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  12/0000Z 15.5N 126.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  12/1200Z 16.1N 128.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  13/0000Z 17.1N 130.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  13/1200Z 18.2N 132.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  14/1200Z 20.1N 136.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  15/1200Z 21.1N 140.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  16/1200Z 21.6N 145.8W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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