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HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042016
200 AM PDT MON JUL 11 2016

Celia still has a somewhat ragged satellite appearance tonight.  The
deepest convection is located in a broken ring around a ragged
intermittent eye and in a band well east of the center.  TAFB and
SAB Dvorak estimates at 06Z were T4.5/77 kt, and the initial
intensity is set to 75 kt for this advisory.  Additional slow
strengthening seems likely for the next day or so while Celia moves
over SSTs above 26C.  After that time the waters will cool, which
should result in a slow weakening through the remainder of the
forecast period since the shear will remain low.  The new NHC
forecast is similar to the previous one, showing a peak of 90 kt in
about 24 h, and this is above all of the intensity guidance.  During
the weakening phase, the NHC forecast lies between the stronger
SHIPS model and the weaker LGEM.

The hurricane is moving westward at 11 kt.  A turn toward the
west-northwest is forecast in about 24 hours as Celia reaches the
southwestern edge of a mid-level ridge.  By the end of the period,
the ridge should rebuild to the north, resulting in the track
bending back toward the west.  Overall, the track model guidance is
in good agreement on this scenario.  For this cycle, the NHC
forecast has been adjusted a bit to the north, but lies south of the
latest TVCN multi-model consensus aid.

An ASCAT-B pass from around 0520Z was used to adjust the initial
34-kt and 50-kt wind radii.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/0900Z 15.0N 124.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  11/1800Z 15.1N 126.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  12/0600Z 15.7N 127.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  12/1800Z 16.5N 129.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  13/0600Z 17.5N 131.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  14/0600Z 19.6N 135.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  15/0600Z 21.0N 139.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  16/0600Z 21.5N 144.5W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan

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