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TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042016
800 PM PDT SAT JUL 09 2016

Celia has changed very little since the last advisory.  A small
central dense overcast persists over the low-level center, with an
elongated convective band wrapping around the southern and western
side of the circulation.  The initial intensity remains 55 kt based
on Dvorak estimates of T3.5 from TAFB and SAB.  Celia appears to
have escaped the coldest water of Hurricane Blas's wake and is now
over sea surface temperatures warmer than 27 degrees Celsius.  In
addition, vertical shear is very low and is expected to remain low
for the next 5 days.  Therefore, more significant strengthening
(compared to the past few days) should begin soon and continue
during the next 2 to 3 days while the cyclone is over warm water.  A
gradual weakening trend should occur on day 3 and beyond. The NHC
intensity forecast is close to a blend of the SHIPS and LGEM
models and is very similar to the previous forecast.

Celia's initial motion is westward, or 275/10 kt.  A continued
westward motion is expected for the next 48 hours while the cyclone
is located south of the subtropical ridge.  By day 3, Celia will be
situated along the southwestern periphery of the ridge and should
turn west-northwestward and northwestward at the end of the forecast
period.  The track guidance continues to be relatively stable and
tightly clustered from cycle to cycle, and the new NHC track
forecast is just an update of the previous one.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/0300Z 14.5N 118.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  10/1200Z 14.5N 120.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  11/0000Z 14.6N 123.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  11/1200Z 14.6N 125.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  12/0000Z 15.0N 127.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  13/0000Z 16.7N 130.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  14/0000Z 19.0N 134.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  15/0000Z 21.0N 138.5W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

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