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TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042016
200 PM PDT SAT JUL 09 2016

The cloud pattern of Celia currently features a small central dense
overcast with outer bands present in all quadrants except the
north.  Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are now 55
kt, and earlier AMSU estimates from CIMSS and CIRA were also near 55
kt.  This value will be the initial intensity.  The cyclone
currently has good cirrus outflow over the western semicircle.

The storm has moved due west for the past few hours.  However, the
longer-term motion is 275/12.  A westward motion south of the
subtropical ridge is expected to continue for the next 48 hours or
so, followed by a west-northwestward motion as the storm approaches
a break in the ridge.  There has been little change in the guidance
since the previous advisory, and the new forecast track is an update
of the previous forecast.

The short-term intensity forecast is tricky even though Celia is
now moving over increasing sea surface temperatures.  The Rapid
Intensification Index of the SHIPS model indicates a 50 percent
chance of 25-35 kt of strengthening during the next 24 hours, and
this is supported by the forecasts of the SHIPS model and the
Florida State Superensemble.  However, the lack of bands in the
northern quadrant suggests that the storm is still struggling with
stable air caused by the cold wake of Hurricane Blas, and it is
unclear how long this will continue.  The intensity forecast is thus
conservative in calling for 20 kt of intensification in 24 hours,
followed by some additional strengthening to a peak intensity of 90
kt by 48 hours. However, it would not be a surprise for Celia to
become a major hurricane.  After 48 hours, Celia will gradually move
over cooler water which should cause a gradual weakening.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/2100Z 14.3N 117.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  10/0600Z 14.4N 119.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  10/1800Z 14.5N 122.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  11/0600Z 14.5N 124.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  11/1800Z 14.8N 126.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  12/1800Z 16.0N 130.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  13/1800Z 18.0N 134.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  14/1800Z 20.0N 138.0W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

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