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TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042016
900 PM MDT FRI JUL 08 2016

Visible satellite imagery shows that Celia has an expansive cloud
shield, with a compact CDO feature and multiple elongated cloud
bands.  However, deep convection is disjointed and fairly limited
near the low-level center.  Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB
and SAB are unchanged from six hours ago, and the CIMSS ADT
estimate has actually decreased during that time.  Therefore, the
initial intensity is left at 40 kt.

Celia's center temporarily moved northward earlier today, but the
average motion over the past 12 hours is estimated to be
northwestward, or 305/8 kt.  A subtropical ridge extending westward
from northern Mexico should cause Celia to resume a west-
northwestward to westward motion but at a faster forward speed
through day 3.  The cyclone is expected to reach the southwestern
periphery of the ridge by day 4, which should cause Celia to turn
northwestward by the end of the forecast period.  The track model
spread is low, especially through day 3, and the NHC track forecast
is very close to the various consensus models.  This updated
forecast is a little north of the previous one during the first 24
hours to account for Celia's recent northward jog.

High-resolution microwave SST data indicate that Celia's center is
now moving over the coldest portion of Blas's cold wake, which could
be contributing to the relative lack of central deep convection.
Celia will continue moving over the cold wake for another day or
so, and only gradual strengthening is anticipated in the short
term.  Warmer waters and low shear should allow faster
intensification to begin in 36-48 hours, with Celia likely
reaching its peak intensity in about 3 days.  Cooler waters should
then induce a gradual weakening trend on days 4 and 5.  In light of
the latest guidance, no significant changes were made to the
previous NHC intensity forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/0300Z 13.7N 114.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  09/1200Z 14.2N 115.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  10/0000Z 14.5N 118.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  10/1200Z 14.6N 120.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  11/0000Z 14.7N 122.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  12/0000Z 15.5N 127.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  13/0000Z 17.0N 131.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  14/0000Z 19.5N 135.0W   70 KT  80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

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