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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042016
900 PM MDT THU JUL 07 2016

Satellite imagery indicate that the low-level circulation associated
with the depression has become larger and better defined, however
the convection near the center is minimal. Most of the thunderstorm
activity is occurring in bands well to the north and southeast of
the center. There are no reasons to change the initial intensity of
30 kt, and this estimate is probably on the high side since the
Dvorak T-numbers are steady or lower tonight.

The depression has failed to strengthen likely due to the upwelling
left by Hurricane Blas, and this possibility has been taken into
consideration in previous NHC forecasts. Since most of the other
environmental parameters are favorable for intensification, the NHC
forecast still calls for such a process to begin on Friday. More
significant strengthening is anticipated beyond 48 hours, although
the NHC forecast is not as aggressive as the SHIPS models.

The overall circulation has been moving very little, and in fact it
has been drifting westward at only 2 kt. This could be the result
of the center rotating around a larger circulation. Nevertheless,
the cyclone is south of a strong subtropical ridge which is forecast
to amplify by most of the global models. This forecast pattern
favors a faster westward motion for the next 3 to 4 days with a
gradual turn to the west-northwest as the system reaches the
southwestern edge of the ridge.  The NHC forecast is not very
different from the previous one, and deviates very little from the
multi-model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/0300Z 12.3N 111.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  08/1200Z 12.5N 112.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  09/0000Z 12.8N 114.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  09/1200Z 12.9N 116.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  10/0000Z 13.0N 118.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  11/0000Z 13.0N 122.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  12/0000Z 14.0N 126.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  13/0000Z 16.0N 130.0W   85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

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