ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042016 900 PM MDT WED JUL 06 2016 The depression is not in a hurry to intensify tonight. The circulation is better defined, and although the convection is not very deep at this time, it is acquiring a comma-shape form, which suggests an increase in the convective pattern organization. The center appears to be located on the nose of the comma, but is not embedded within the thunderstorm activity. T-numbers from SAB, TAFB and ADTs from CIMSS are near 2.0 on the Dvorak scale. On this basis, the initial intensity is kept at 30 kt. The depression is embedded within a very favorable environment of low shear for intensification, and only the upwelling left by strong Hurricane Blas could cause a delay in the intensification process. Most of the intensity guidance shows a substantial increase in the winds by the end of the forecast period and in fact, the SHIPS model increases the winds to above 100 kt. The NHC forecast follows the model trend and makes the depression a hurricane in 3 days, but this could happen earlier. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest or 285 degrees at 7 kt. Most of the global models amplify a very strong and nearly stationary subtropical ridge which extends from the United States westward across the Pacific. This steering pattern will likely force the cyclone to move westward and even south of due west for 3 to 4 days. After that time the cyclone will begin to turn more to the west-northwest around the southwestern periphery of the ridge. Most of the track models are in agreement with this solution, and the NHC forecast is in the middle of the guidance envelope, but favoring the consensus between the GFS and the ECMWF global models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 12.4N 109.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 12.5N 111.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 12.5N 112.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 12.5N 114.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 12.5N 115.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 10/0000Z 12.5N 119.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 11/0000Z 12.5N 122.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 12/0000Z 14.5N 126.0W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila NNNN
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