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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042016
300 PM MDT WED JUL 06 2016

Satellite imagery indicates that the low pressure area located well
southwest of the coast of Mexico now has a well-defined circulation
and sufficient organized convection to be designated a tropical
depression.  Thus, advisories are initiated on Tropical Depression
Four-E with an initial intensity of 30 kt.

The depression is moving westward or 280 degrees at 7 kt.  A weak
low- to mid-level ridge should steer the cyclone westward at a
less than climatological forward speed for the next 3-4 days,
followed by a west-northwestward motion by day 5.  The track
forecast guidance is in good agreement with this scenario, and the
track forecast is in the center of the guidance envelope.

The dynamical models forecast that the cyclone will be in an
environment of light vertical wind shear for the next five days.
However, it is forecast to cross an area of cooler water, possibly a
cold wake left by Hurricane Blas, during the next 72 hours.  This is
expected to allow only slow intensification during that time.
Subsequently, the cyclone should move over warmer water and
strengthen at a faster rate.  The intensity forecast is in best
agreement with the SHIPS model, and it calls for the cyclone to
become a tropical storm in about 24 hours and a hurricane in about
96 hours.  An alternative scenario is that the cyclone strengthens
faster than currently forecast due to the conducive shear
environment.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/2100Z 12.2N 109.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  07/0600Z 12.3N 110.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  07/1800Z 12.3N 111.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  08/0600Z 12.5N 112.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  08/1800Z 12.5N 114.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  09/1800Z 12.5N 117.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  10/1800Z 13.0N 120.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  11/1800Z 14.5N 123.5W   90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

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