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TROPICAL DEPRESSION BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016
200 AM PDT SUN JUL 10 2016
Blas has been void of organized deep convection since about 00Z,
and convection is unlikely to return given that the cyclone is
moving over SSTs less than 24C. The initial intensity is lowered to
30 kt based on the latest Dvorak estimate from TAFB. Blas should
weaken to a remnant low later today and the cyclone is expected to
open up into a trough after 48 hours.
Microwave fixes indicate that Blas is located a bit south of
previous estimates and the latest geostationary fixes, and the
initial motion estimate is 280/10. The shallow cyclone is expected
to gradually turn west-southwestward under the influence of the
low-level trade wind flow before dissipation. The new NHC track
forecast is a little south of the previous one given the initial
position and a southward trend in the multi-model consensus.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/0900Z 21.2N 135.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 21.3N 136.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 11/0600Z 21.0N 138.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 11/1800Z 20.5N 141.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 12/0600Z 20.0N 143.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Brennan
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