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HURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032016
800 PM PDT FRI JUL 08 2016

Blas has continued to move over increasingly cooler waters, and
although the convection has been on a general weakening trend, the
hurricane still has a vigorous circulation as indicated by ASCAT
earlier today.  A blend of subjective and objective Dvorak numbers
from all agencies supports an initial intensity of 70 kt. In
addition to the effect of cooler waters, the shear is forecast to
increase. Recent microwave imagery suggests that the low-level
center is south of the convection, indicating that the shear is
already increasing.  These factors should result in faster
weakening, and Blas is expected to become a remnant low by Sunday or
sooner. In fact, SHIPS and LGEM basically dissipate the cyclone
in 48 hours or so.

The cyclone is moving toward the northwest or 325 degrees at about
10 kt around the southwestern periphery of the Pacific subtropical
ridge, and this general track is forecast to continue for a day or
so. In about 36 hours or less, Blas should have become a shallow
system and will likely be steered westward and west-southwestward by
the low-level trade winds. Most of the models have been fairly
consistent with this scenario for a while, and there are no obvious
reasons to vary from earlier NHC forecasts.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/0300Z 19.2N 131.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  09/1200Z 20.2N 132.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  10/0000Z 21.3N 133.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  10/1200Z 21.8N 135.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  11/0000Z 21.7N 137.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  12/0000Z 21.0N 141.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  13/0000Z 20.0N 145.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  14/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

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