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HURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032016
200 PM PDT FRI JUL 08 2016

Cool waters are taking a toll on Blas.  The satellite presentation
of the hurricane has degraded since this morning as the convective
cloud tops have warmed and steadily decreased in coverage. Dvorak
intensity estimates continue to decrease and the initial wind speed
has been reduced to 75 kt, which is blend of the latest subjective
T- and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB.  The hurricane should continue
to quickly weaken while it moves over water below 24C and into a
more stable environment during the next several days.  The latest
intensity forecast is close to the SHIPS/LGEM guidance, and calls
for Blas to weaken to a tropical storm tonight, and become a
post-tropical cyclone in about 36 hours.

Recent center fixes show that Blas has turned northwestward.  The
cyclone should continue moving northwestward during the next day or
so into a weakness in the subtropical ridge caused by a large mid-
to upper-level low to the northeast of Hawaii.  By Sunday, the
post-tropical cyclone is forecast to turn back westward in the
low-level easterly flow.  The guidance is in good agreement on this
scenario and the updated track forecast is essentially an update of
the previous NHC advisory.

The initial wind radii have been adjusted based on a recent ASCAT
pass.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/2100Z 18.5N 130.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  09/0600Z 19.7N 131.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  09/1800Z 21.0N 132.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  10/0600Z 21.8N 134.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  10/1800Z 22.0N 136.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  11/1800Z 21.5N 140.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  12/1800Z 20.5N 144.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  13/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

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