ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022016 200 PM PDT MON JUL 04 2016 Strong shear, cooler waters, and drier air are taking their toll on Agatha. The system has lost practically all deep convection, and is technically too weak to classify via the Dvorak technique. A recent ASCAT pass indicated that maximum winds have decreased to near 30 kt. Given the hostile environment, Agatha is likely to continue weakening, and advisories on this system will likely be discontinued soon. With more visible imagery now available, the center has been repositioned just slightly to the north of the previous track, but the motion is still basically toward the west, or 280/11 kt. The cyclone should continue a generally westward motion in the low-level easterly flow until it dissipates. The official track forecast is close to the dynamical model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 18.8N 129.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 19.2N 130.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 05/1800Z 19.6N 132.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 06/0600Z 19.7N 134.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/1800Z 19.6N 136.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch NNNN
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