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TROPICAL DEPRESSION AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022016
200 PM PDT MON JUL 04 2016

Strong shear, cooler waters, and drier air are taking their toll on
Agatha.  The system has lost practically all deep convection, and
is technically too weak to classify via the Dvorak technique.  A
recent ASCAT pass indicated that maximum winds have decreased to
near 30 kt.  Given the hostile environment, Agatha is likely to
continue weakening, and advisories on this system will likely be
discontinued soon.

With more visible imagery now available, the center has been
repositioned just slightly to the north of the previous track, but
the motion is still basically toward the west, or 280/11 kt.  The
cyclone should continue a generally westward motion in the
low-level easterly flow until it dissipates.  The official track
forecast is close to the dynamical model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/2100Z 18.8N 129.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  05/0600Z 19.2N 130.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  05/1800Z 19.6N 132.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  06/0600Z 19.7N 134.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  06/1800Z 19.6N 136.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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