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TROPICAL STORM AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022016
800 AM PDT MON JUL 04 2016

Agatha's center is exposed to the southwest of a diminishing area of
deep convection.  The current intensity is held at 35 kt in
accordance with a Dvorak estimate from TAFB, although this may be
generous.  A broad upper-level trough to the west of the
tropical cyclone is imparting about 25 kt of southwesterly shear
over Agatha.  The dynamical guidance indicates that this shear will
increase some more and this, along with cooling ocean waters and
dry air, should cause the cyclone to weaken and degenerate into a
remnant low by Tuesday.  The official intensity forecast is in good
agreement with the latest LGEM guidance.

A mainly westward motion, or 280/11 kt, continues while Agatha is
steered by the flow to the south of a mid-level ridge.  There is no
significant change to the track forecast.  The weakening and
increasingly shallow cyclone should continue on a generally westward
course following the low-level easterlies.  The official track
forecast is an extension of the previous one and is in good
agreement with the dynamical model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/1500Z 18.4N 128.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  05/0000Z 18.7N 129.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  05/1200Z 18.9N 131.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  06/0000Z 19.0N 133.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  06/1200Z 18.9N 135.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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