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TROPICAL STORM AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022016
800 PM PDT SUN JUL 03 2016
Although Agatha still has a tight circulation, the overall
convective pattern has lost some organization during the last
several hours. The initial intensity has been lowered a little to
35 kt, in agreement with the Dvorak classification from TAFB and ADT
estimates from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin. Agatha is
currently over cool 25 deg C waters and is embedded in a stable air
mass, as evident by the field of stratocumulus clouds over the
western half of the circulation. These unfavorable conditions,
combined with a notable increase in southwesterly shear during the
next day or so, should cause Agatha to weaken to a remnant low in
about 36 hours, or perhaps sooner. The remnant low is forecast to
dissipate in about 4 days.
The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at about 10 kt while
being steered by a mid-level ridge over northwestern Mexico. The
weakening system is expected to gradually turn westward during the
next couple of days as it becomes a shallower cyclone and is mainly
steered by the low-level trade wind flow. The NHC track forecast is
nudged a little to the south of the previous one and lies very close
to the multi-model consensus TVCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/0300Z 18.0N 125.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 18.4N 127.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 18.8N 129.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 18.9N 131.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 06/0000Z 18.8N 133.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 07/0000Z 18.5N 137.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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