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TROPICAL STORM AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022016
200 AM PDT SUN JUL 03 2016

A small burst of cold-topped convection has remained near the
center of Agatha during the past 6 hours, and earlier microwave
satellite data indicate that the compact cyclone had developed a
small mid-level eye feature. Satellite intensity estimates are
T2.5/35 kt from TAFB, T3.0/45 kt from SAB, UW-CIMSS ADT 3.3/51 kt,
and 48 kt from a recent AMSU estimate. A blend of these intensity
values supports increasing the initial intensity to at least 40 kt.

Agatha's initial motion estimate is 290/12 kt based on a 12-hour
average motion. Latest NHC model guidance remains in good agreement
on maintaining a strong low- to mid-level ridge to the north of
Agatha for the next several days. This stable steering pattern
should keep the small cyclone moving in a general west-northwestward
direction for the next 36 hours or so, followed by a turn toward the
west after that. The official NHC track forecast is similar to the
previous forecast track and lies close to the consensus model TVCE.

Agatha has likely reached its peak intensity, so little change in
strength is expected today. By tonight and especially on Monday, the
cyclone will be encountering increasing southwesterly vertical wind
shear in excess of 20 kt, and will also be moving over sea-surface
temperatures less than 26C and into a significantly drier air mass.
These negative factors should cause Agatha to weaken to a remnant
low by 48-72 hours, and dissipate by day 4.  This official intensity
forecast is similar to the previous NHC advisory and closely follows
the intensity consensus model IVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0900Z 17.0N 122.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  03/1800Z 17.7N 124.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  04/0600Z 18.4N 126.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  04/1800Z 18.9N 128.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  05/0600Z 19.1N 130.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  06/0600Z 19.4N 134.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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