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TROPICAL STORM AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022016
200 PM PDT SAT JUL 02 2016

A ragged convective overcast with cloud tops to -80C has persisted
near the center of Agatha since the last advisory.  Satellite
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 30 and 35 kt,
respectively, while the latest CIMSS ADT estimate is 45 kt.  The
initial intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory, and this
could be a little conservative.

The initial motion remains 295/10.  A low- to mid-level ridge to the
north of the storm should steer it generally west-northwestward for
24 hours or so, followed by a turn toward the west.  Late in the
forecast period, a turn to a south-of-west direction is expected as
the remnants of Agatha come under the influence of a larger
tropical weather system to the east.  The new forecast track is a
little to the north of the previous track at 48 hours, but
otherwise is similar to the earlier forecast.  However, the
forecast is still a little to the south of the various consensus
models.

Some additional strengthening is possible during the next 12-24
hours while Agatha remains in a light vertical wind shear
environment and over relatively warm sea surface temperatures.
Beyond that time, a combination of strong southwesterly shear and
cooler sea surface temperatures should cause a steady weakening.
Agatha is expected to weaken to a depression by 48 hours, a remnant
low by 72 hours, and dissipate completely by 96 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/2100Z 16.1N 120.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  03/0600Z 16.7N 121.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  03/1800Z 17.5N 123.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  04/0600Z 18.1N 126.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  04/1800Z 18.4N 128.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  05/1800Z 18.0N 131.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  06/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

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