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TROPICAL STORM OTTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162016
1500 UTC TUE NOV 22 2016

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENTS OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA HAVE ISSUED A HURRICANE
WATCH FROM THE COSTA RICA/PANAMA BORDER TO SOUTH OF BLUEFIELDS
NICARAGUA.

THE WEATHER SERVICE OF PANAMA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR PANAMA FROM NARGANA TO COLON AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM
WEST OF COLON TO THE COSTA RICA/PANAMA BORDER.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* COSTA RICA/PANAMA BORDER TO SOUTH OF BLUEFIELDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NARGANA TO COLON

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN ANDRES
* WEST OF COLON TO THE COSTA RICA/PANAMA BORDER

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE DURING
THE DAY TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...AND PROVIDENCIA
ISLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OTTO.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.4N  79.2W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   0 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  986 MB
EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  60SE  60SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE  30SE  60SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.4N  79.2W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.4N  79.2W

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 10.4N  79.6W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 10.6N  80.6W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 10.8N  81.7W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  70SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 10.8N  82.8W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  70SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 10.5N  86.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 10.0N  90.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z  9.5N  94.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.4N  79.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


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