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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162016
1500 UTC MON NOV 21 2016

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...AND THE ISLANDS OF SAN
ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM...SINCE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N  79.3W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT STATIONARY

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N  79.3W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N  79.3W

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 11.4N  79.4W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 11.3N  79.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 11.2N  80.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 11.1N  81.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 11.1N  82.6W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 11.1N  85.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 11.0N  88.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.5N  79.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


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