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TROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222016
900 AM CST SAT NOV 26 2016
The cloud pattern has deteriorated significantly during the past
several hours and it appears that the system is degenerating in a
trough of low pressure. It is very difficult to ascertain if there
is a circulation by inspecting the conventional satellite imagery
or even earlier microwave data. Based on continuity and recent
Dvorak estimates, the initial intensity is estimated generously at
40 kt. Given the prevailing strong shear and the current trend,
additional weakening is forecast, and Otto is anticipated to become
a trough or a remnant low in about 48 hours or sooner. This is the
solution provided by the UK, ECMWF and GFS global models.
The initial motion is uncertain given the difficulty in locating
the center. The best estimate is 260 degrees at 14 kt. The cyclone
is south of a strong ridge of high pressure, and this pattern should
continue to steer the system on a general westward track until
dissipation.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/1500Z 9.0N 94.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 8.6N 96.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 8.3N 99.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 8.3N 101.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 8.7N 104.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 29/1200Z 10.0N 107.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Avila
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