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TROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP222016
900 AM CST FRI NOV 25 2016

Microwave and conventional satellite imagery shows that Otto's
cloud pattern is a little better organized with a mid-level eye and
very deep convection surrounding the center.  Estimates from
TAFB and SAB are 3.5 on the Dvorak scale, and on this basis, the
initial intensity is set at 55 kt. The intensity forecast continues
to be uncertain. While global models show a gradual decay of the
cyclone, other intensity guidance show a steady state or even
slight intensification.  The shear is a little bit strong for
significant intensification primarily during the next 48 to 72
hours. After that time, the shear is expected to decrease, but the
environment is forecast to dry out. The NHC forecast follows
in general the intensity consensus during the first few days, and
then calls for a weakening trend by the end of the forecast period
following the solution of the global models and the previous NHC
forecast.

Otto is moving toward the west or 265 degrees at 14 kt within the
easterly flow associated with a strong mid-level high over Mexico.
This steering pattern is forecast to persist for the next 2 to 3
days, so a general west or even west-southwest track is anticipated.
By the end of the forecast period, Otto should be located on the
southwestern edge of the high and should then begin to turn to the
northwest and north. In contrast with the intensity guidance, the
track models are in good agreement, increasing the confidence in
the track forecast.  The NHC forecast follows very closely the
multimodel consensus and is basically in the middle of the tight
guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/1500Z 10.3N  88.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  26/0000Z 10.0N  90.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  26/1200Z  9.5N  93.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  27/0000Z  9.3N  96.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  27/1200Z  9.2N  99.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  28/1200Z  9.7N 105.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  29/1200Z 11.0N 107.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  30/1200Z 13.0N 108.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila

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