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HURRICANE OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162016
400 PM EST THU NOV 24 2016

Satellite imagery and radar data from Nicaragua indicate that
Hurricane Otto made landfall at approximately 1800 UTC today along
the extreme southern coast of Nicaragua, just north of the town
of San Juan de Nicaragua. The peak intensity at the time of landfall
was estimated to be at least 95 kt and the central pressure was
estimated at 975 mb. This makes Otto the southernmost landfalling
hurricane in Central America on record.

The initial motion estimate is 270/10 kt. Otto is located inland
over extreme southern Nicaragua, just north of the border with Costa
Rica. Easterly steering flow on the south side of a deep-layer ridge
located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and southern Mexico is
expected to keep Otto or its remnants moving in a westward to
west-southwestward direction throughout the forecast period. The
global and regional models are in good agreement on this track
scenario, and only a slight northward adjustment was made to the
previous forecast track, mainly due to the more northward initial
position of Otto.

Otto is forecast to weaken rapidly while the hurricane moves farther
inland over the rough terrain of southern Nicaragua and northern
Costa Rica tonight. Otto is expected to weaken to a tropical storm
by the time it emerges over the eastern North Pacific in about 12 h,
and maintain that intensity during the 24-96 hour period. The ECMWF,
UKMET, and Canadian models continue to weaken Otto throughout the
forecast period, especially after 48 hours when the cyclone is
forecast to interact with a dry Gulf of Tehuantepec gap-wind event.
Erosion of the inner-core convection and wind field is expected from
this negative interaction, resulting in dissipation of Otto by
48-72 h. In contrast, the GFS model keeps the gap-wind event away
from Otto and strengthens the cyclone back to hurricane status by
48 h and beyond. For now, the NHC official intensity forecast will
remain similar to the previous advisory, and more closely follows
the Decay-SHIPS intensity model, which is well below all of the
other intensity forecast models.

The primary threat from Otto is going to be torrential rainfall,
which will result in dangerous flooding and mudslides. Reports of
mudslides across northern Costa Rica have already been received from
amateur radio operators in that area.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/2100Z 11.0N  84.3W   85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
 12H  25/0600Z 10.7N  86.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...OVER WATER
 24H  25/1800Z 10.2N  88.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  26/0600Z  9.8N  91.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  26/1800Z  9.5N  93.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  27/1800Z  9.4N 100.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  28/1800Z 10.5N 103.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  29/1800Z 12.1N 105.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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