ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

HURRICANE OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162016
1000 AM EST THU NOV 24 2016

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter plane penetrated the eye of
Otto around 1200 UTC this morning and indicated that the
hurricane was intensifying. The estimated central pressure dropped
to 976 mb and the flight-level wind at 700 mb peaked at 108 kt while
the SFMR winds reached 90 kt. Since that time, satellite imagery
showed that the hurricane cloud pattern has become better organized
with a distinct eye in both convectional and microwave imagery, and
the Data-T numbers reached 5.5 on the Dvorak scale. On this basis,
the initial intensity has been set at 95 kt.

There is an opportunity for some additional strengthening before
Otto makes landfall during the next several hours. However,
weakening should begin after the eye moves farther inland
across Central America. Otto is expected to emerge over the
eastern Pacific in about 12 to 24 h as a tropical storm. Otto should
continue to weaken as it moves over the eastern pacific given that
strong shear is forecast to prevail in that region, and the cyclone
should become a remnant low by the end of the forecast period. The
NHC intensity forecast is very similar to the previous one.

Satellite and reconnaissance fixes indicate that Otto is moving
toward the west or 270 degrees at 8 kt.  The hurricane is
trapped within easterly flow associated with a strong high
pressure to the north, and since this high is forecast to persist,
the hurricane should continue on a general west to west-southwest
track for the next 3 days. After that time, a much weaker Otto
should turn to the west-northwest around the western edge of
the high. The track guidance is very consistent with this
scenario and there is no need to deviate from the previous NHC
forecast. The forecast track continues to be very close to the
multi-model consensus.

NHC thanks the crew of the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters for
flying and providing valuable data on Thanksgiving Day.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/1500Z 11.0N  83.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  25/0000Z 10.8N  84.8W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
 24H  25/1200Z 10.3N  87.4W   50 KT  60 MPH...OVER WATER
 36H  26/0000Z  9.8N  89.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  26/1200Z  9.5N  92.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  27/1200Z  9.0N  98.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  28/1200Z 10.0N 102.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  29/1200Z 11.5N 104.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila

NNNN