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TROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162016
1000 AM EST TUE NOV 22 2016

Otto is close to becoming a hurricane. Satellite images indicate
that the cloud pattern has become better organized, with a central
dense overcast and broad band feature over the western semicircle
evident.  The past Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter flight
recorded maximum flight-level winds of 65 kt, with SFMR winds of
about 60 kt.  Thus, the initial wind speed is increased to 60 kt
for this advisory.

Weak-to-moderate southeasterly shear is expected near Otto for the
next couple of days while the tropical cyclone moves over warm
water.  These conditions should allow Otto to continue to
strengthen, and almost all of the guidance has Otto as a hurricane
before making a central American landfall.  The official intensity
forecast is raised from the previous one, and lies between the
intensity consensus and the HWRF model.  Land interaction will
cause weakening after landfall, but a stronger Otto is less likely
to dissipate as quickly over the eastern Pacific.  Most of the
guidance now keeps the storm going throughout the period, so the
remnant low designation has been changed to a tropical cyclone
status over the eastern Pacific.

Otto really isn't moving much, with recon fixes showing little net
motion during the morning hours.  A mid-level ridge is forecast to
build over the northwestern Caribbean Sea by tomorrow, which should
cause Otto to move slowly westward.  As the ridge builds, the
forecast speed should increase, especially as the cyclone moves
across the eastern Pacific.  The guidance continues to trend
southward, and the official forecast is shifted in that direction.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/1500Z 10.4N  79.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  23/0000Z 10.4N  79.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  23/1200Z 10.6N  80.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  24/0000Z 10.8N  81.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  24/1200Z 10.8N  82.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  25/1200Z 10.5N  86.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  26/1200Z 10.0N  90.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  27/1200Z  9.5N  94.5W   30 KT  35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

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