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HURRICANE NICOLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  39
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016
2100 UTC THU OCT 13 2016

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR
BERMUDA TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.6N  63.2W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  40 DEGREES AT  18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  963 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE  60SE  45SW  45NW.
50 KT....... 90NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.
34 KT.......130NE 160SE 120SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 210SE 420SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.6N  63.2W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.0N  63.9W

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 35.0N  60.7W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 55NE  55SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.
34 KT...160NE 170SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 36.4N  56.8W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  60SE  50SW  40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE 100SW  90NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 37.8N  53.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  60SE  60SW  40NW.
50 KT...100NE 120SE 100SW  90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 200SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 38.8N  50.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT...150NE 140SE 160SW 160NW.
34 KT...300NE 270SE 270SW 300NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 39.0N  48.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT...100NE 120SE 150SW 180NW.
34 KT...360NE 270SE 300SW 380NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 39.6N  46.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 42.0N  41.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.6N  63.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


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