Hurricane NICOLE

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HURRICANE NICOLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016
2100 UTC TUE OCT 11 2016

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.4N  66.4W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT   4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  980 MB
EYE DIAMETER  25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT.......100NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..390NE 180SE 120SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.4N  66.4W AT 11/2100Z
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.3N  66.3W

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 28.0N  66.9W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 29.1N  67.1W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 30.8N  66.5W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 33.1N  64.9W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 38.0N  59.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT...120NE 140SE 140SW 100NW.
34 KT...270NE 270SE 200SW 170NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 41.0N  54.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 41.5N  53.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.4N  66.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


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