ZCZC MIATCMAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL STORM NICOLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016
1500 UTC TUE OCT 11 2016

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR BERMUDA THIS
AFTERNOON.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N  65.9W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT   4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..390NE 180SE 120SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N  65.9W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.1N  65.8W

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 27.7N  66.4W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  80SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 28.6N  66.9W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE  80SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 30.2N  66.6W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE  90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 32.2N  65.4W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 36.8N  60.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW  80NW.
34 KT...240NE 240SE 180SW 180NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 40.5N  55.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 41.8N  53.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.3N  65.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


NNNN