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HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016
1100 AM AST WED OCT 12 2016

The satellite presentation of the hurricane has changed very little
during the past 6 to 12 hours.  Nicole remains a very symmetric
hurricane with a distinct 30 nmi wide eye.  An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft flew one alpha pattern through the storm
this morning and recorded peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 91 kt,
SFMR winds of 79 kt, and a minimum pressure of 969 mb.  Since the
aircraft only sampled a small portion of the circulation, the
initial intensity is set 85 kt, which is a blend of the aircraft
data and the most recent subjective Dvorak satellite estimates.
The aircraft data indicate that Nicole has grown in size since
yesterday, and the initial and forecast wind radii have been
adjusted accordingly.

Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for some
strengthening while Nicole approaches Bermuda during the next day
or so.  After that time, increasing southwesterly shear and cooler
sea surface temperatures are expected to induce weakening.  Nicole
is forecast to interact with a frontal boundary in about 72 hours,
but it is not clear as to whether Nicole will complete its
transformation into an extratropical low by days 4 and 5. For now,
the NHC forecast maintains persistence with the previous advisories
and predicts Nicole to lose tropical characteristics by 96 h but
remain an intense storm system over the north Atlantic.

The aircraft and satellite fixes indicate that the hurricane has
turned northward, and Nicole should stay on this heading with
some increase in forward speed today. The hurricane will become
embedded within the mid-latitude flow on Thursday, which should
steer Nicole northeastward with an additional increase in forward
speed.  The NHC forecast is once again very close to the previous
advisory, and shows the core of Nicole passing near or over Bermuda
between 24 and 36 hours.  Later in the period, the cyclone is
forecast to slow down and meander over the north Atlantic as it
interacts with a large cut-off low well to the southeast of Atlantic
Canada.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/1500Z 28.4N  66.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  13/0000Z 29.5N  66.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  13/1200Z 31.5N  65.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  14/0000Z 33.7N  63.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  14/1200Z 35.8N  59.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  15/1200Z 39.1N  53.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  16/1200Z 39.2N  50.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  17/1200Z 39.2N  50.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Brown

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