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TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016
500 AM AST SUN OCT 09 2016

Without any recent microwave data, it has been difficult to locate
Nicole's center.  However, the center is fully embedded beneath the
deep convection, and Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB
support holding the maximum winds at 45 kt.  Northerly shear
affecting the cyclone has decreased a little since this time
yesterday and is now analyzed to be about 35 kt.  The magnitude of
the shear should continue to gradually decrease, reaching a minimum
in about 2 to 3 days.  After that time, the shear could once again
increase when Nicole gets closer to the mid-latitude westerlies.
Due to the ebbs and flows of the shear, the NHC intensity forecast
shows little change in strength for the next 36 hours and then
indicates gradual strengthening from day 2 through day 5.  This
forecast shows the same general trend indicated in the previous
advisory.

Nicole has been drifting southward but now appears to be almost
stationary as it becomes collocated with a nearby mid-level low
pressure area.  Little motion is expected for the next day or so,
but Nicole should begin to move slowly northward after 24 hours
when it is picked up by two shortwave troughs moving off the east
coast of the United States.  A northeastward acceleration is
expected by the end of the forecast period once Nicole becomes
established within mid-latitude westerly flow.  The ECMWF model
remains a western outlier since it shows a little more interaction
between Nicole and Matthew's remnant mid-level circulation.
However, the updated NHC track forecast is close to the previous
forecast and remains between the GFS and ECMWF solutions.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/0900Z 24.3N  65.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  09/1800Z 24.3N  65.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  10/0600Z 24.9N  65.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  10/1800Z 25.9N  65.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  11/0600Z 26.9N  65.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  12/0600Z 28.4N  66.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  13/0600Z 31.0N  65.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  14/0600Z 35.0N  60.5W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

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