ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016
500 PM AST WED OCT 05 2016

A 1846 UTC SSMI microwave pass showed that Nicole has a
well-defined mid-level eye with the deepest convection to the
southeast of the center.  Nicole's visible satellite presentation
has also improved, and there has been a recent burst of convection
right over the center.  Dvorak intensity estimates are now T3.0
from SAB and T3.5 from TAFB, so the initial intensity is raised to
50 kt.  It's often difficult to estimate the strength of small
cyclones like Nicole based on satellite alone, and it's possible
that the intensity could be higher.

As discussed this morning, Nicole is located beneath an upper-level
shear axis, so the vertical shear directly over the cyclone is
actually not that high.  Since Nicole could stay in this type of
environment for another 12-24 hours, and due to the cyclone's small
size, the maximum winds could increase in the short term.  The new
NHC intensity forecast is higher than the previous forecast during
the first 24 hours, and it is above all of the guidance during that
period.  In fact, it would not be surprising if Nicole was to
become a hurricane some time soon, especially since it already has a
eye in microwave imagery.  After 24 hours, a larger area of strong
upper-level winds should overspread Nicole, and the maximum winds
should therefore decrease through the end of the forecast period.

The initial motion remains 300/7 kt.  Nicole's forward motion is
expected to slow down to a crawl by 36 hours, and after that
time, there is considerable spread in the guidance.  For example,
by day 5, the ECMWF pulls Nicole well northward, absorbed by
Matthew and a nearby frontal zone, while the UKMET, HWRF, and GFDN
models push Nicole southward or southwestward.  Given this
uncertainty, the NHC track forecast continues to show a slow
meandering motion on days 2-5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/2100Z 25.3N  63.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  06/0600Z 26.3N  64.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  06/1800Z 27.4N  65.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  07/0600Z 27.9N  65.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  07/1800Z 27.7N  64.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  08/1800Z 27.0N  64.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  09/1800Z 27.5N  65.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  10/1800Z 29.5N  65.0W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

NNNN