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HURRICANE MATTHEW WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 39
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
2100 UTC FRI OCT 07 2016
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MATTHEW WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
30.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
RICHMOND VA 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
DANVILLE VA 34 1 4( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
NORFOLK NAS 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 5(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14)
NORFOLK VA 34 X 3( 3) 6( 9) 5(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15)
OCEANA NAS VA 34 X 3( 3) 7(10) 5(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16)
ELIZABETH CTY 34 X 5( 5) 12(17) 6(23) 2(25) X(25) X(25)
GREENSBORO NC 34 2 4( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11)
RALEIGH NC 34 2 8(10) 5(15) 3(18) X(18) X(18) X(18)
ROCKY MT NC 34 2 8(10) 10(20) 4(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 X 7( 7) 33(40) 14(54) 2(56) X(56) X(56)
CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 8(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16)
CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
FAYETTEVILLE 34 4 30(34) 10(44) 2(46) 1(47) X(47) X(47)
FAYETTEVILLE 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CHARLOTTE NC 34 4 4( 8) 3(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
CHERRY PT NC 34 3 21(24) 36(60) 6(66) 1(67) X(67) X(67)
CHERRY PT NC 50 X 2( 2) 14(16) 4(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21)
CHERRY PT NC 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
NEW RIVER NC 34 2 20(22) 40(62) 8(70) 2(72) X(72) X(72)
NEW RIVER NC 50 X 1( 1) 20(21) 6(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28)
NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 3 23(26) 38(64) 7(71) 1(72) X(72) X(72)
MOREHEAD CITY 50 X 2( 2) 19(21) 6(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28)
MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
SURF CITY NC 34 4 44(48) 26(74) 3(77) 1(78) X(78) X(78)
SURF CITY NC 50 X 7( 7) 25(32) 3(35) X(35) X(35) X(35)
SURF CITY NC 64 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
WILMINGTON NC 34 6 52(58) 19(77) 2(79) 1(80) X(80) X(80)
WILMINGTON NC 50 X 11(11) 23(34) 1(35) 1(36) X(36) X(36)
WILMINGTON NC 64 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
BALD HEAD ISL 34 13 59(72) 15(87) 1(88) 1(89) X(89) X(89)
BALD HEAD ISL 50 X 25(25) 28(53) 1(54) X(54) X(54) X(54)
BALD HEAD ISL 64 X 7( 7) 17(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24)
FLORENCE SC 34 24 46(70) 3(73) 1(74) X(74) X(74) X(74)
FLORENCE SC 50 1 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
COLUMBIA SC 34 29 22(51) 2(53) 1(54) X(54) X(54) X(54)
COLUMBIA SC 50 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
LITTLE RIVER 34 23 57(80) 8(88) 1(89) X(89) X(89) X(89)
LITTLE RIVER 50 1 33(34) 15(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49)
LITTLE RIVER 64 X 11(11) 7(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 40 48(88) 4(92) 1(93) X(93) X(93) X(93)
MYRTLE BEACH 50 1 44(45) 10(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55)
MYRTLE BEACH 64 X 16(16) 6(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22)
GEORGETOWN SC 34 66 29(95) 1(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96)
GEORGETOWN SC 50 3 59(62) 4(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66)
GEORGETOWN SC 64 X 32(32) 2(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34)
CHARLESTON SC 34 88 11(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
CHARLESTON SC 50 25 54(79) 1(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80)
CHARLESTON SC 64 3 47(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50)
BEAUFORT MCAS 34 97 2(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
BEAUFORT MCAS 50 62 22(84) 1(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85)
BEAUFORT MCAS 64 24 28(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52)
ATLANTA GA 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
AUGUSTA GA 34 33 9(42) 2(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44)
AUGUSTA GA 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SAVANNAH GA 34 98 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
SAVANNAH GA 50 73 6(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79)
SAVANNAH GA 64 35 7(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42)
KINGS BAY GA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
KINGS BAY GA 50 83 X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83)
KINGS BAY GA 64 29 X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29)
WAYCROSS GA 34 66 1(67) 1(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68)
WAYCROSS GA 50 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
MAYPORT NS FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
MAYPORT NS FL 50 96 X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96)
MAYPORT NS FL 64 50 X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50)
JACKSONVILLE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
JACKSONVILLE 50 56 X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56)
JACKSONVILLE 64 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
GAINESVILLE FL 34 22 3(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25)
DAYTONA BEACH 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
DAYTONA BEACH 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
THE VILLAGES 34 4 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
ORLANDO FL 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
PATRICK AFB 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
FT PIERCE FL 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7)
W PALM BEACH 34 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5)
FT LAUDERDALE 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
MIAMI FL 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
FT MYERS FL 34 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)
VENICE FL 34 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
TAMPA FL 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
CEDAR KEY FL 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
ST MARKS FL 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
APALACHICOLA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
COLUMBUS GA 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8)
ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7)
GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6)
SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6)
CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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