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HURRICANE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  40A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
200 AM EDT SAT OCT 08 2016

...EYE OF HURRICANE MATTHEW MOVING DUE NORTH TOWARD THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST...
...STORM SURGE FLOODING OCCURRING IN SOUTH CAROLINA, FLORIDA, AND
GEORGIA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.6N 80.6W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM S OF HILTON HEAD SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SSW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* North of Fernandina Beach to Surf City

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Surf City to Cape Lookout

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Surf City to Duck
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* North of Flagler/Volusia county line to Fernandina Beach

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Matthew was
located by NOAA Doppler weather radars and an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 31.6 North, longitude 80.6
West. Matthew is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and
this general motion is expected to continue this morning.  A turn
toward toward the north-northeast and then to the northeast is
expected by this afternoon. On the forecast track, the center of
Matthew will move near or over the coast of South Carolina this
morning, and be near the coast of southern North Carolina by
tonight.

Reports from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds remain near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Although weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours,
Matthew is expected to remain a hurricane while the center is near
the coast.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km).  NOAA buoy 41008 located off of the Georgia coast
recently reported sustained winds of 63 mph (102 km/h) and a wind
gust of 78 mph (126 km/h). Tropical-storm-force winds are now
occurring along the coast of South Carolina from the Savannah River
northeastward to Charleston.

The minimum central pressure recently reported by the reconnaissance
aircraft was 955 mb (28.20 inches). Buoy 41008 recently reported a
pressure of 957 mb (28.26 inches) inside the northwestern portion of
Matthew's eye.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected to
continue over the warning area in Georgia and South Carolina
this morning, and spread northward elsewhere within the warning area
through today. Tropical storm conditions in northeastern Florida
should subside later this morning.

Residents in high-rise buildings should be aware that the winds at
the top of a 30-story building will be, on average, about one
Saffir-Simpson category higher than the winds near the surface.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch and
Tropical Storm Warning area in North Carolina by tonight or Sunday
morning, with tropical storm conditions expected later this morning.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge, the tide,
and large and destructive waves will cause normally dry areas near
the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the
shoreline.  The water could reach the following heights above ground
if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida, to Edisto Beach, South Carolina,
including portions of the St. Johns River...6 to 9 ft
Edisto Beach, South Carolina to Cape Fear, North Carolina...
5 to 7 ft
Cape Fear to Duck, North Carolina, including portions of the
Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water
rises to occur well in advance of and well away from the track of
the center.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

There is a danger of life-threatening inundation during the next 36
hours along the Florida northeast coast, the Georgia coast, the
South Carolina coast, and the North Carolina coast from the
Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida, to Cape Fear, North Carolina.  There is
the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the next 48
hours from north of Cape Fear to Duck, North Carolina. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National
Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of
areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or
warning currently under development by the National Weather Service
and planned for operational use in 2017.  The Prototype Graphic is
available at hurricanes.gov.

RAINFALL:  Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 8 to 12 inches over the Atlantic coast of the United States from
eastern Georgia into eastern North Carolina and southeast
Virginia...with possible isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches.
This rainfall may result in life threatening flooding and flash
flooding. Nearly 14 inches of rainfall has been measured thus far
at Hunter Army Airfield in Savannah, Georgia.

TORNADOES:  A tornado or two remains possible near the South
Carolina coast through this morning.

SURF:  Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions
of the Bahamas and the east coast of Florida during the next few
days, and will spread northward along the southeast U.S. coast
through the weekend.  These swells will likely cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products
from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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