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HURRICANE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  30A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
200 PM EDT WED OCT 05 2016

...SEVERE HURRICANE MATTHEW BEARING DOWN ON THE BAHAMAS AND AIMING
TOWARD FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.1N 75.3W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NNE OF CABO LUCRECIA CUBA
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM S OF LONG ISLAND BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of the Bahamas has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Warning for the Turks and Caicos Islands.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma,
and Las Tunas
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins,
Crooked Island, Long Cay, and Ragged Island
* Central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay,
San Salvador, and Cat Island
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,
Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and
New Providence
* North of Golden Beach to the Flagler/Volusia county line
* Lake Okeechobee

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Camaguey
* North of the Flagler/Volusia county line to Fernandina Beach

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Haiti
* Chokoloskee to Golden Beach
* Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge eastward
* Florida Bay

Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys
should monitor the progress of Matthew.

The Hurricane Watch and Hurricane Warning for Cuba will likely be
discontinued later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located
near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 75.3 West. Matthew is moving
toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue during the next 24 to 48 hours. On this track,
Matthew will be moving across the Bahamas today and tomorrow, and is
expected to be very near the east coast of Florida by Thursday
evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Matthew is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some strengthening is forecast during the
next couple of days, and Matthew is expected to remain at category 3
or stronger while it moves through the Bahamas and approaches the
east coast of Florida.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane
Hunter plane was 963 mb (28.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions will continue to gradually diminish
over portions of eastern Cuba today. These conditions will continue
over the southeastern Bahamas, and will spread over the central
Bahamas later today and the northwestern Bahamas tonight.

Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach the hurricane
warning area in Florida by late Thursday and will spread northward
Thursday night and Friday.  Tropical storm conditions are first
expected in Florida by early Thursday.

RAINFALL:  Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall amounts in
the following areas:

Southern Haiti and southwestern Dominican Republic...15 to 25
inches, isolated 40 inches
Eastern Cuba and northwestern Haiti...8 to 12 inches, isolated
20 inches
Eastern Jamaica...additional 1 to 2 inches, isolated storm totals
12 inches
The Bahamas...8 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches
Turks and Caicos Islands...2 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches
Northeastern Haiti and the Northern Dominican Republic...1 to 3
inches, isolated 5 inches
Coastal east-central Florida....4 to 7 inches, isolated 10 inches
Florida Keys....1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches

Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are likely in southern
and northwestern Haiti, the southwestern Dominican Republic, and
eastern Cuba.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the
following amounts above normal tide levels...

Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey...4 to 6 feet
The Bahamas...10 to 15 feet

The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

North Palm Beach to the Flagler/Volusia county line...3 to 5 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur
well in advance of and well away from the track of the center.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.  There is a danger of
life-threatening inundation during the next 36 hours along the
Florida east coast from North Palm Beach to the Flagler/Volusia
county line. There is the possibility of life-threatening inundation
during the next 48 hours from north of the Flagler/Volusia county
line to Fernandina Beach. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning
Graphic.  For information specific to your area, please see products
issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of
areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or
warning currently under development by the National Weather Service
and planned for operational use in 2017.  The Prototype Graphic is
available at hurricanes.gov.

SURF:  Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions
of the coasts of Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, and the Bahamas during
the next few days, and will spread northward along the east coast of
Florida and the southeast U.S. coast tonight and Thursday.  These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

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