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BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER  38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
1100 AM EDT FRI OCT 07 2016

...WESTERN EYEWALL OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE MATTHEW BRUSHING PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.4N 80.5W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM ENE OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning has been extended northeastward to Surf City
North Carolina.  The Hurricane Warning from Sebastian Inlet to Cocoa
Beach Florida has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning. The
Tropical Storm Warning south of Sebastian Inlet has been
discontinued. The Tropical Storm Warning and Tropical Storm Watch
along the west coast of Florida has been discontinued.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from north of Surf City to
Duck, North Carolina, including the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued from Surf City to Cape Lookout
North Carolina.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cocoa Beach to Surf City

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Surf City to Cape Lookout

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sebastian Inlet to Cocoa Beach
* North of Surf City to Duck
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located
near latitude 29.4 North, longitude 80.5 West. Matthew is moving
toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the north is
expected tonight or Saturday.  On the forecast track, the center of
Matthew will continue to move near or over the coast of northeast
Florida and Georgia through tonight, and near or over the coast of
South Carolina on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Matthew is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Although weakening is forecast during the
next 48 hours, Matthew is expected to remain a hurricane until it
begins to move away from the United States on Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km).  A wind gust to 69 mph (111 km/h) was recently reported
at St. Augustine.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force
Hurricane Hunter plane was 947 mb (27.97 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected to
continue over the warning area in Florida today, and spread
northward within the warning area through Saturday.

Residents in high-rise buildings should be aware that the winds at
the top of a 30-story building will be, on average, about one
Saffir-Simpson category higher than the winds near the surface.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
tropical storm warning area in North Carolina on Saturday morning.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge, the tide,
and large and destructive waves will cause normally dry areas near
the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the
shoreline.  The water could reach the following heights above ground
if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Flagler Beach, Florida, to Edisto Beach, South Carolina, including
portions of the St. Johns River...6 to 9 ft
Cocoa Beach to Flagler Beach, Florida...4 to 6 ft
Edisto Beach, South Carolina to Cape Fear, North Carolina...
4 to 6 ft
Sebastian Inlet to Cocoa Beach, Florida...2 to 4 ft
Cape Fear to Salvo, North Carolina, including portions of the
Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water
rises to occur well in advance of and well away from the track of
the center.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

There is a danger of life-threatening inundation during the next 36
hours along the Florida northeast coast, the Georgia coast, the
South Carolina coast, and the North Carolina coast from Sebastian
Inlet, Florida, to Cape Fear, North Carolina.  There is the
possibility of life-threatening inundation during the next 48 hours
from north of Cape Fear to Salvo, North Carolina. For a depiction of
areas at risk, please see the Prototype National Weather Service
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of
areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or
warning currently under development by the National Weather Service
and planned for operational use in 2017.  The Prototype Graphic is
available at hurricanes.gov.

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
8 to 12 inches over the Atlantic coast of the United States from
central Florida to eastern North Carolina...with possible isolated
maximum amounts of 15 inches. This rainfall may result in flooding
and flash flooding.

TORNADOES:  An isolated tornado or two is possible along the South
Carolina, Georgia, and northeast Florida coasts today.

SURF:  Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions
of the Bahamas and the east coast of Florida during the next few
days, and will spread northward along the southeast U.S. coast
through the weekend.  These swells will likely cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

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